Current Economic Newsletter #7 – June, 15th 2009
Short edition
The previous
Newsletter indicated a strong rise for on-line bookings since early June. Now time has elapsed, the trend is confirmed in this 7th newsletter…
Here’s a summary of the previous events.
May has been just like the previous months, with two specific trends:
- A slight increase for July
- A very strong demand for last minute booking (weekends and short breaks mainly).
Strong (NL – FR) and weak (UK – IRL – DK) markets remained unchanged. Yet the weaker markets were balanced with the stronger ones and the general trend was increasing. Occupancy issues mainly focused on bookings for late June and early July, even late July for some regions.
In June, bookings for July have been increasing, so did the last minute bookings for June.
This 7th newsletter is a confirmation of the 6th with further major specifications:
Preamble: We would like to remind you the figures provided come from a sample group of campsites in France, Spain and Italy for the season 2008/2009 compared to the season 2007/2008 and they only deal with on-line sales.
Trend #1- Rush on last minute bookings
Last 14 days: 1-14 June 2009
|
Issuing markets
|
Number of bookings
|
Turnover
|
|
Belgie
|
+40%
|
+27%
|
|
Belgium
|
+37%
|
+55%
|
|
Denmark
|
+23%
|
+9%
|
|
Germany
|
+30%
|
+23%
|
|
Spain
|
+29%
|
+31%
|
|
France
|
+68%
|
+83%
|
|
Italy
|
+18%
|
+39%
|
|
Netherlands
|
+43%
|
+51%
|
|
Switzerland
|
+56%
|
+58%
|
|
United Kingdom
|
-6%
|
-8%
|
|
Others
|
+13%
|
+25%
|
|
Total
|
+43%
|
+54%
|
(Evolution for on-line sales on the period 1-14 June 2009 compared to 2008 June period)
Last 8 months: October ’08 to 31st May ‘09
|
Issuing markets
|
Number of bookings
|
Turnover
|
|
Belgie
|
+20%
|
+21%
|
|
Belgium
|
+32%
|
+35%
|
|
Danmark
|
-4%
|
-6%
|
|
Germany
|
+9%
|
+10%
|
|
Spain
|
+23%
|
+30%
|
|
France
|
+28%
|
+26%
|
|
Italy
|
+2%
|
-2%
|
|
Netherlands
|
+7%
|
+14%
|
|
Switzerland
|
+20%
|
+26%
|
|
United Kingdom
|
-26%
|
-32%
|
|
Others
|
-6%
|
-3%
|
|
Total
|
+12%
|
+13%
|
(Evolution for on-line sales over the last 8 months, October, 1st ’08 to 31st May ’09 compared to 2008 same period)
Comments
The rise recorded over the last fortnight is very impressive since all the markets but the British one have had increasing sales. Obviously, one fortnight sales in June will never weigh enough to balance sales recorded since October. Yet, the number of bookings and the current top pass band records let’s foresee a regular rise until late July. Unless something happens…
When analyzing figures market per market, we can notice the Danish market records increasing figures again and may take a significant part of bookings until July, 10th.
Trend #2 - What are the British doing?
Camping pitch
|
Booking period
|
Number of bookings
|
Turnover
|
|
1 October – 31 May
|
-20%
|
-20%
|
|
1 June – 14 June
|
-5%
|
-3%
|
(Evolution of camping pitch bookings on the British market between 2008 and 2009)
Hard rental
|
Booking period
|
Number of bookings
|
Turnover
|
|
1 October – 31 May
|
-37%
|
-41%
|
|
1 June – 14 June
|
-10%
|
-15%
|
(Evolution of hard rental bookings on the British market between 2008 and 2009)
Comment
Two different elements let us hope some improvement for sales on the British market. Ryanair sales, 60% British, have recorded sudden rise over the last three weeks while it was regularly growing since the launch of the camping booking device (this is standard increase for this kind of launch).
Moreover, information coming directly from UK some time ago had us hope for the best following a positive change rate.
This didn’t happen, the fall is small yet here and the British market is still delayed. We will keep an eye on it in the coming weeks to see if the improvement foreseen finally happens and have the market increasing again.
Let’s also mention that the British market has a weak pattern flexibility because of the ferry crossing to reach continental Europe.
Trend #3 - Less demands in June, but improvement on last minute bookings!
June currently records a good booking rate for immediate departures. This trend does improve the situation because the general number of bookings for June has been the lowest since the season has begun. This improvement is clearly shown in the following grids.
Yet, it is hard to balance an 8-month delay in only one fortnight…
Number of stays in June booked between October 31st and May 31st
|
Period of stay
|
Number of bookings
|
Turnover
|
|
1-15 June
|
+9%
|
+3%
|
|
16-30 June
|
-25%
|
-32%
|
|
Total
|
-13%
|
-22%
|
(Evolution of the bookings recorded between October 31st 2008 and May 31st 2009 for stays in June, compared to June 2008 stays)
Number of stays in June booked between October 31st and June 14th
|
Period of stay
|
Number of bookings
|
Turnover
|
|
1-15 June
|
+16%
|
+7%
|
|
16-30 June
|
-17%
|
-28%
|
|
Total
|
-5%
|
-18%
|
(Evolution of the bookings recorded between October 31st 2008 and June 14th 2009 for stays in June, compared to June 2008 stays)
Reading figues
The last fortnight has been very positive for the number of bookings for stays in June. Yet, the whole month of June may still be in the red by the end. Final figures in a few days!
Synthesis
The volume of on-line sales did balance June occupancy rate but most demands still focus on the high season. This allows us to think that July will benefit from this trend on the high season.
Synthèse
Le volume d’activité de la vente en ligne enregistré actuellement permet bien une amélioration relative du remplissage de juin, mais l’essentiel de cette demande est bien concentré sur la haute saison. On peut donc estimer que le mois de juillet, en retard comme nous l’avons vu au début de cette news, devrait en bénéficier.